In How Big Things Get Done, Bent Flyvbjerg, one of the world’s leading experts on megaproject management, teams up with journalist Dan Gardner to uncover why most large projects go wrong and how to fix them. Drawing on decades of data, psychological insights, and stories from real-world projects (both triumphs and disasters), the book presents a convenient and refreshingly readable guide to delivering complex initiatives on time, on budget, and with real impact.
The central insight is summed up in a deceptively simple heuristic: “Think slow, act fast.” The authors argue that successful projects result from slow, thoughtful, iterative planning—followed by fast, focused, and disciplined execution. In contrast, most failures come from the opposite: rushed planning, superficial analysis, and blind optimism, followed by delays, cost overruns, and endless firefighting.
Key Lessons and Concepts
1. The Iron Law of Megaprojects:
Over budget, over time, under benefits—again and again. Flyvbjerg coined this phrase after studying countless projects, from IT systems to bridges and stadiums. He warns that many projects suffer from strategic misrepresentation (deliberately optimistic projections) and uniqueness bias (believing “this time is different”).
2. Beware of Black Swans:
Large, ambitious projects are vulnerable to “fat-tailed” risks—low-probability, high-impact events that can derail everything. The best defense? Shorten the window of exposure. Speedy delivery, not rushed beginnings, is the way to reduce risk.
3. Plan like Pixar or Frank Gehry:
Both the animation studio and the architect share a common strategy: meticulous, low-risk prototyping. Pixar creates entire movies in rough storyboard form before committing to production. Gehry won’t allow construction until every cost is known and the design is validated. Flyvbjerg calls this “Pixar planning”—a process built on iteration, testing, and learning before committing serious capital.
4. Think from Right to Left:
Don’t start with the how—start with the why. Ask what success looks like and work backward. The best planners, like Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos, imagined the end goal first (a happy customer) and shaped the project accordingly. This “backcasting” approach ensures that the right problems are solved rightly.
5. Use Reference-Class Forecasting:
Stop treating your project like it’s unique. Instead, compare it to similar efforts and learn from their outcomes. This external perspective reduces the impact of overconfidence and wishful thinking.
6. Modularity matters:
From software to wind farms, modular design—building from repeatable, scalable components—enables speed, reliability, and innovation. It’s a cornerstone of modern delivery strategies, from SpaceX to Ørsted.
Bottom Line
How Big Things Get Done is not just another project management book. It’s a manifesto for a new way of thinking about large, complex endeavors, instead of slogans about disruption and hustle, Flyvbjerg and Gardner champion rigor, realism, and discipline.
This is essential reading for government, infrastructure, tech, and business leaders—anyone tasked with turning big ideas into reality. By following their “Eleven Heuristics for Better Project Leadership,” you won’t just build faster. You’ll build smarter.
Walther Ploos van Amstel.
For sale at Managementboek.