Zero-emission zones are coming, electric vans and trucks are ramping up, and by 2030 the tailpipe problem of urban logistics will largely be solved. Good news? Yes. Job done? Not even close. Because a battery-electric van still blocks the bike lane, still idles on the sidewalk, still competes for scarce urban space. Swapping diesel for electrons does nothing to address nuisance, congestion, safety, or inefficiency.
That is the message of a study, published in the proceedings of the 13th International Conference on City Logistics. Researchers from AUAS, HAN, BUas and TNO looked at the spatial footprint of urban logistics towards 2035 — and, crucially, at the neighborhood level. Because there is no such thing as “the” city when it comes to freight.
Five neighborhoods, five logistics profiles
We developed five archetype areas: the historical city center, the historical city block, the suburban neighborhood, the car-free neighborhood and the high-rise neighborhood. For each, we estimated the daily logistics footprint across six segments — from temperature-controlled deliveries to construction and service vans — towards 2035.
The differences are striking. The historical center carries the heaviest footprint: dense amenities, restaurants, retail, growing resident numbers, plus a wave of renovation traffic. High-rise neighborhoods face a surge of home deliveries — meals, quick commerce, parcels, groceries — driven by single-person households with money to spend. And the car-free neighborhood? Low car ownership, yes, but goods and services still have to arrive. More than half of incoming vans are service vehicles: the plumber, the cleaner, the maintenance crew whose van is workshop, lunch spot and office in one.
Meanwhile, kilometers driven by urban logistics vehicles are set to grow 19% by 2035. And that growth lands precisely where cities are removing road space and parking spots in favor of walking, cycling and greening. The battle for urban space is on, and logistics is inherently part of it.
Stop treating logistics as a temporary nuisance
What is missing almost everywhere is a comprehensive policy that treats urban logistics not as a passing inconvenience, but as an inherent part of public space. Our study draws three lessons. First: an integral urban logistics policy needs area-specific approaches — conflicts do not arise evenly across neighborhoods. Second: interventions exist, but none works without collaboration among municipalities, logistics service providers, receivers, and real estate developers. Third: nearly every solution — parcel lockers, dynamic loading zones, microhubs, mobility hubs — requires space. Space that must be reserved early, in the (re)development of areas.
Urban planners: you determine a neighborhood’s logistics profile the moment you decide which functions go where. Design the processes, not just the streets. Logistics does not follow the city. Logistics is the city.
Also read: The 15-minute city needs 15-minute logistics. And that starts with innovating processes, not vans