In trucking operations, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is pivotal in decision-making. To provide valuable insights, German Strategy Engineers has conducted an in-depth analysis of 27 scenarios for Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV), Medium Commercial Vehicles (MCV), and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV) across three investment timeframes: 2023, 2025, and 2030. The TCO comparisons include three scenarios: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic.
The TCO scenarios depend highly on assumptions regarding future oil price development, CO2 fees, and fluctuating hydrogen prices. Key factors considered include:
- CO2 emission fees that increase annually and a shift to market dynamics after 2027.
- Expected reductions in the cost of green-produced hydrogen.
- Geopolitical influences on oil prices.
- Fluctuations in electric power prices are influenced by CO2 pricing and renewable energy generation.
The TCO analysis did not consider differences in European road pricing and local subsidies.
The findings of the German TCO analysis are:
- For investments in 2023, LCV BEV drives offer the lowest TCO in all scenarios, followed by diesel propulsion.
- For investments in 2023, HCV BEV drives demonstrate the lowest TCO in all scenarios, followed by diesel propulsion (optimistic scenario) or FCEV.
- In the optimistic scenario for 2025 investments, HCV FCEV drives show the lowest TCO. In other scenarios, BEV retains a marginal advantage.
TCO parity for BEVs and HCVs in 2025 hinges on alterations in electricity and hydrogen prices. Batteries and Fuel Cells are the predominant solutions, each with pros and cons. Battery electric vehicles offer lower TCO but have payload and charging time limitations. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles offer advantages in energy density and refueling times but depend on government support and hydrogen supply costs.